Malthus' Theory of Population


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A British economist Malthus'(1778) proposed a theory that population grows at geometric proportion and after the imbalance between population and resources is set in, population is automatically checked by natural disasters (like famine, epidemic, disease, earthquake, flood) called positive checks.

Even in Hindu mythology, the concept of 'pralaya' to destroy a part of population reflects the same concept.

He also proposed the theory of population explosion or population holocast - which is relevant in some parts of world. This indicates that an over - grown population explodes like a bomb on the available resources, beyond which positive checks are naturally applied. Exponential growth of population will invariably lead to population explosion.

Growth of Human Population Through Ages and Shows the Recent Exponential Growth

Malthus' theory of population is relevant to global population is general as well as to some parts of world - where the population is growing at a geometric rate.

Rate of Growth of Population

 Year Global population Growth Year Indian population (million) Growth % annual
 1850 1 billion - 1901 236 -
 1930 2 billion 1 billion / 80 yrs 1911 252 1.4
 1965 3 billion 1 billion / 35 yrs 1921 2510.1
 19804 billion 1 billion/15 yrs  1931 279 2.8
 19905 billion  1 billion/10 yrs 1941 318 3.9
 2000
 
 
 
 
 

 7 billion

 
 
 
 
 

2 billion/10 yrs

 
 
 
 
 

 1951 361 4.3
 1961 439 7.3
 1971 547 10.8
 1981 684 13.7
 1991 844 16.0
 2001 1024 18.0

 

Although Indian population has followed geometric growth pattern, it is showing gradual trends of stability in the last two decades.

Exponential Curve

Popularly called as J-curve. In this pattern the population grows continuously at an increasing rate after an initial lag period. This rapid growth in population leads to holocast.

global population grows exponentially

Global population growth as well as population growth of many countries is following exponential curve pattern.


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